A few days ago, Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian businessman with close ties to the Kremlin and the leader of the Wagner Group of mercenaries fighting on behalf of Russia in Ukraine, orchestrated a coup that aimed at a possible change in Russia’s military leadership. Less than 200 miles to Moscow, Prigozhin and his men halted, abandoning their putsch as Belarusian President, Aleksandr Lukashenko was said to have brokered peace between the coup plotters and Vladimir Putin, the leader of Russia.

Prior to the announcement of the end of the coup, Putin, in an address to the nation, accused the coup plotters and their leader of high treason, promising severe punishment.

The President of Belarus, in his intervention, secured a deal that allowed the coup plotters to join the Russian Army and the leader to go into exile in Belarus.

Although things remain fluid and uncertain, both Putin and Prigozhin, in separate announcements, are yet to back down.

As of June 28, 2023, when this essay was written, no one knows the whereabouts of Prigozhin. Putin, in his latest address, admitted that Russia lost some pilots to the coup and there was video evidence of Prigozhin’s men shooting down a military helicopter. Nevertheless, Russia dropped all charges against Prigozhin and his men. Contrary to available evidence, Putin praised the Russian military for putting down Prigozhin’s rebellion.

In this essay, I examine the national, regional, and international implications of the development.

Nationally, a coup creates a state of political instability that could lead to or signal a power vacuum. It brings about infighting among various factions, especially at the front, and potentially could lead to violent conflicts within Russia.

Successful or not, this attempted coup will reconfigure Russia’s political and military leadership, with serious implications for both Putin and Prigozhin. Putin is a renowned autocratic leader. Autocrats do not treat coups lightly and Putin would go to any length to deal with the coup plotters and their real and imagined supporters. In an attempt to consolidate his powers, whatever semblance of democratic ethos and institutions in Russia will, in the coming days, suffer as Putin will certainly ramp up activities in suppressing opposition voices.

In the coming days, I won’t be surprised if a wave of repression, assassination, and Cold War-era hounding of opposition becomes an everyday thing in Russia. Prigozhin, like anyone else, would do whatever it takes to preserve his life and those of his supporters.

Until things clear out and normalize, this coup could have a negative impact on Russia’s economy, as it could lead to capital flight, economic uncertainty, and a decline in investor confidence. This could affect the overall stability and well-being of the country.

On the regional level, this is a seismic shift in Eastern European geopolitics. Defeating or standing up to Putin is, in itself, a significant development in the geopolitical landscape of the region. This could shift the balance of power and, going forward, it could affect relationships with neighbouring countries and regional powers.

Using mercenaries and recruiting prisoners to fight Russia’s war in Ukraine has shown the world that Russia is no longer the war machine that once existed. Prigozhin’s attempted coup and the way Putin conceded a few hours after talking tough on national television showed how weak Putin and Russia under Putin have become.

This coup will influence relationships among post-Soviet states. No one should be surprised if any of the post-Soviet states decided to pull out.  Attempts to rein in such a state would increase instability or bring about repression or outright war. Given that Russia is fighting Ukraine with prisoners and mercenaries, can it afford yet another war? Can it fight two wars at the same time?

As things stand in Ukraine, the West is solidly being Kyiv and any regional uprisings would not only spread Russian resources thin but also bring out the West effectively into the region. In the coming days, many nations in the region will be reevaluating their relationships with Russia, and the possibility of aligning themselves with other global powers, most especially the United States and other NATO countries is certain.

With the above, the regional security environment of Eastern Europe stands in danger, as this coup in Russia, depending on how it is managed, can create uncertainty and increase the risk of conflict or power struggles in neighbouring countries.

On the international front, a coup in Russia is like a hurricane in the global power dynamics. Even with many things still unclear, this is a clear indication of a weakened Russia. The development has weakened Russia’s position as a major global player and created opportunities for other countries to assert their influence on the world stage.

In the coming days, we would see what impact this is going to have on Russia’s international relations. Given that many nations in Eastern Europe saw the occasion of Ukraine as a major security concern, this coup could bring about diplomatic tensions. While the West generally see coups as a threat to democratic norms, a coup against Russia will be welcomed.

Russia is a major player in global issues such as cybersecurity, arms control, and regional conflicts. This coup, if not managed well, could disrupt ongoing negotiations or agreements and complicate efforts to address these issues collectively.

It is too early to assert what could or will happen in Russia; however, Putin’s capitulation and walking back his earliest comments have given the West a reason to celebrate.

Is this the beginning of the end of Putin? Only time will tell.