The 2023 presidential election in Nigeria has come and gone. It was a highly contested and controversial one, with three main candidates vying for the top office: Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and Peter Obi of the Labor Party (LP).

Senator Bola Tinubu was declared the winner by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on February 25, with 8.8 million votes, followed by Atiku Abubakar with 7.9 million votes and Peter Obi with 6.1 million votes. Today, May 29, 2023, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is sworn in today as Nigeria’s president.

However, his victory was challenged by his opponents, who alleged electoral fraud, malpractices, violence, and technical glitches that marred the credibility of the election. They also disputed INEC’s interpretation of the constitutional requirement for national spread of winning votes. In a number of judgments, some of the ground for challenging Tinubu’s electoral victory have been thrown out by the Supreme Court.

The reactions from Nigerians were mixed, with some celebrating Tinubu’s win as a continuation of APC’s agenda for change and development, while others expressing disappointment and anger over what they perceived as a rigged and flawed election.

As the outgoing President noted, it is hoped that Tinubu would address the pressing issues facing Nigeria such as insecurity, corruption, poverty, unemployment, and health care. In an inauguration lecture, former president of Kenya, Jomo Kenyatta, enjoined the newly sworn-in president of Nigeria to unite Nigerians.

It must be noted that Bola Tinubu, prior to the elections, presented an 80-page manifesto that outlines his policies for various sectors of the country. Following his assumption of office, Nigerians and the international community are waiting to see how the President will carry out his policies, most especially those listed and summarized below:

National security: He plans to reform and restructure the security agencies, equip and motivate them, and enhance intelligence gathering and sharing. He also plans to address the root causes of insecurity such as poverty, unemployment, inequality, and social injustice.

Economy: He plans to diversify the economy away from oil dependence, promote industrialization and manufacturing, improve infrastructure and public services, create a conducive environment for private sector investment and innovation, and implement fiscal discipline and transparency.

Agriculture: He plans to modernize agriculture through mechanization, irrigation, extension services, input subsidies, credit facilities, crop insurance, and value addition. He also plans to boost food security and export earnings by supporting agro-processing industries and linking farmers to markets.

Power: He plans to increase power generation capacity through renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, hydro, biomass, and gas. He also plans to improve power transmission and distribution networks, reduce losses and thefts, ensure cost-reflective tariffs and subsidies for low-income consumers, and encourage off-grid solutions for rural areas.

Oil and gas: He plans to reform the oil and gas sector by passing the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB), which will restructure the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), create a regulatory framework for upstream and downstream activities, ensure environmental protection and community development in oil-producing areas, and attract foreign investment. He also plans to promote local content development in the sector by supporting indigenous companies and skills development.

Transportation: He plans to develop an integrated transportation system that will link road, rail, air, and water transport modes. He also plans to upgrade existing transport infrastructure, expand urban mass transit systems, improve road safety and traffic management, and facilitate regional and international connectivity.

Education: He plans to revamp the education sector by increasing funding and accountability, improving access and quality at all levels, promoting science and technology education, enhancing teacher training and welfare, strengthening curriculum and examination standards, and encouraging private sector participation.

A manifesto is a pact and below, I attempt an examination of possibilities of Tinubu attaining or fulfilling this pact, as laid out in his manifestos, with Nigerians. I shall proceed with some of the obstacles on Tinubu’s way to attaining his goals.

Some of the challenges the president elect may face in implementing his policies as Nigeria’s president are identified below:

Reconciliation: He will need to heal the divisions and polarizations that emerged during the election campaign, which was marked by animosity, violence, and allegations of fraud. He will also need to foster national unity and integration among Nigeria’s diverse ethnic, religious, and regional groups.

Security: He will need to address the multiple security threats that plague Nigeria, such as insurgency, banditry, terrorism, kidnapping, militancy, piracy, separatism, communal clashes, and farmer-herder conflicts. He will also need to reform and restructure the security agencies, equip, and motivate them, and enhance intelligence gathering and sharing.

Economy: He will need to revamp Nigeria’s ailing and critically dysfunctional economy that is suffering from slow growth, high inflation and unemployment, low revenue and high debt, currency devaluation and exchange rate volatility, and dependence on oil exports. He will also need to diversify the economy away from oil dependence, promote industrialization and manufacturing, improve infrastructure and public services, create a conducive environment for private sector investment and innovation, and implement fiscal discipline and transparency.

Fuel subsidy: He will need to scrap the costly fuel subsidy that drains about 6 trillion naira ($13 billion) from state finances every year. This subsidy keeps petroleum product prices artificially low for consumers but also encourages smuggling, corruption, inefficiency, and environmental damage. However, removing the subsidy may trigger social unrest and inflationary pressures among Nigerians who rely on cheap fuel for transportation and power generation.

Corruption: He will need to fight against corruption that pervades all levels of government and society in Nigeria. Corruption undermines good governance, democratic accountability, economic development, social justice, and national security. He will also need to strengthen anti-corruption institutions and laws, enhance transparency and oversight mechanisms, recover looted funds and assets, prosecute corrupt officials and individuals.

How can Tinubu overcome these challenges?

A whole lot revolves around Tinubu and his advisors. Nevertheless, I provided some basic suggestions to these challenges below:

Reconciliation: He can adopt a conciliatory and inclusive approach to governance, reaching out to his opponents and critics, and inviting them to join him in building a better Nigeria. He can also promote dialogue and tolerance among different groups and stakeholders in the country and address their grievances and aspirations.

Security: He can implement a comprehensive and holistic security strategy that combines military, political, economic, social, and diplomatic measures. He can also collaborate with regional and international partners to enhance security cooperation and coordination.

Economy: He can implement sound economic policies that are evidence-based and best practices. He can also leverage Nigeria’s abundant human and natural resources to stimulate growth and development. He can also seek external support from multilateral and bilateral agencies to boost Nigeria’s economy.

Fuel subsidy: He can phase out the fuel subsidy gradually and transparently, while providing adequate compensation and social protection for the poor and vulnerable segments of the population. He can also invest in alternative energy sources such as renewable energy to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on fossil fuels.

Corruption: He can lead by example and demonstrate zero tolerance for corruption in his administration. He can also empower anti-corruption agencies and civil society organizations to monitor and expose corruption cases. He can also enact and enforce strict anti-corruption laws and sanctions for offenders.

I am not ignorant of the fact that each of these suggested solutions entails some risks or trade-offs. What are these trade-offs?

Reconciliation: He may face resistance or backlash from some of his supporters or hardliners who may see his conciliatory and inclusive approach as a sign of weakness or compromise. He may also have to make some concessions or sacrifices to accommodate the interests and demands of his opponents and critics.

Security: He may have to allocate more resources and attention to security issues, which may divert them from other developmental priorities. He may also have to deal with complex and sensitive issues such as amnesty, disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration of former combatants, including Boko Haram. He may also face external pressure or interference from regional and international actors who may have their own agendas or interests in Nigeria’s security situation.

Economy: He may have to implement unpopular or painful economic reforms that may cause short-term hardship or discontent among the population. He may also have to balance competing demands and expectations from different sectors and groups in the economy. He may also face challenges in attracting and retaining external support from multilateral and bilateral agencies who may impose conditionalities or restrictions on Nigeria’s economic policies.

Fuel subsidy: He may have to deal with public protests or unrest that may erupt as a result of removing the fuel subsidy. He may also have to ensure that the compensation and social protection measures for the poor and vulnerable are adequate and effective and that they get to these vulnerable groups. He may also face challenges in developing and deploying alternative energy sources such as renewable energy that may require high initial investment and technical expertise.

Corruption: He may have to confront powerful and entrenched interests and networks that benefit from corruption and resist change. He may also have to cope with public cynicism or apathy that may undermine his anti-corruption efforts. He may also face legal or political obstacles that may hamper his ability to enact and enforce anti-corruption laws and sanctions.

To mitigate these risks and trade-offs, it would be in Tinubu’s interests to consider the following before attempting any of the suggested solutions:

Reconciliation: He can communicate clearly and effectively with his supporters and hardliners about the rationale and benefits of his conciliatory and inclusive approach. He can also seek to build trust and confidence with his opponents and critics through dialogue and cooperation. He can also ensure that any concessions or sacrifices he makes are fair and reciprocal.

Security: He can allocate resources and attention to security issues in a strategic and efficient manner, ensuring that they are aligned with other developmental priorities. He can also involve all relevant stakeholders in the design and implementation of his security strategy, ensuring that it is inclusive and participatory. He can also maintain a constructive and cooperative relationship with regional and international actors, while safeguarding Nigeria’s sovereignty and interests.

Economy: He can implement unpopular or painful economic reforms in a gradual and transparent manner, ensuring that they are accompanied by adequate social safety nets and compensatory measures for the affected population. He can also engage in constant consultation and dialogue with different sectors and groups in the economy, ensuring that they are informed and involved in the economic decision-making process. He can also negotiate and secure external support from multilateral and bilateral agencies on favorable terms, ensuring that they respect Nigeria’s autonomy and ownership of its economic policies.

Fuel subsidy: He can phase out the fuel subsidy gradually and transparently, ensuring that he provides sufficient information and education to the public about the rationale and benefits of removing the subsidy. He can also ensure that the compensation and social protection measures for the poor and vulnerable are adequate, effective, timely, and accessible. He can also invest in alternative energy sources such as renewable energy in a sustainable and cost-effective manner, ensuring that they meet Nigeria’s energy needs and aspirations.

Corruption: He can confront powerful and entrenched interests and networks that benefit from corruption by mobilizing public support and pressure against them. He can also cope with public cynicism or apathy by demonstrating tangible results and impacts of his anti-corruption efforts. He can also overcome legal or political obstacles by building alliances or coalitions with reform-minded actors in the judiciary, legislature, civil society, media, private sector, etc.

Can a Tinubu adopt any of these?

This is perhaps a difficult question to answer not only because I do not know Tinubu personally, but also because I do not know his intentions and capabilities.

However, if his manifesto and his track record as a former governor of Lagos state are anything to go by, I think he has some will and capacity to implement these suggestions. He has shown some commitment and vision for addressing Nigeria’s challenges in his policy document. He has also shown some achievements and innovations in improving Lagos state’s finances, infrastructure, transportation, and security during his tenure as governor. However, he may also face some limitations and constraints in implementing these suggestions at the national level. He may encounter some resistance or opposition from vested interests or political rivals who may not share his agenda or vision. He may also face some challenges in building consensus or cooperation among different actors or stakeholders who may have divergent views or interests. He may also face some difficulties in mobilizing resources or expertise to execute these suggestions effectively.

Therefore, I think Tinubu’s will and capacity to implement these suggestions will depend on various factors such as his political skills, leadership qualities, strategic thinking, problem-solving abilities, and ethical standards. It will also depend on the support and participation of Nigerians who can hold him accountable and responsible for his actions and policies.

As the support Peter Obi received from many Nigerian youths has shown, Nigerians can hold Tinubu accountable and make him responsible for his actions and policies in different ways. I itemize a few ways to force Tinubu to move Nigeria in the right direction below:

Voting: Nigerians can exercise their democratic right and duty to vote in elections at all levels of government. This shall apply to the next presidential election. They can also monitor and observe the electoral process to ensure its credibility and integrity. They can also demand electoral reforms to improve the quality and inclusiveness of Nigeria’s democracy.

Advocacy: Nigerians can voice their opinions and concerns on various issues and policies that affect them. Social media and numerous online platforms have made this easier to achieve today than any time before now. They can also engage in advocacy campaigns or movements to influence public opinion and policy making. They can also use various platforms such as social media, blogs, podcasts, etc. to raise awareness and mobilize support for their causes.

Participation: Nigerians can participate in various forums or platforms that allow them to interact with their elected representatives or public officials. They can also join or form various groups or organizations that represent their interests or values. They can also volunteer or contribute to various initiatives or projects that benefit their communities or society.

Oversight: Nigerians can oversee the performance and conduct of their elected representatives, including the president or public officials. They can also access information and data on various aspects of governance and service delivery. They can also report or expose any cases of corruption, mismanagement, abuse, or violation of human rights or the rule of law.

Litigation: Nigerians can seek legal redress or remedy for any grievances or injustices they may face as a result of the actions or policies of their elected representatives or public officials. They can also support or join any legal actions or cases that challenge or defend the constitutionality, legality, or morality of any actions or policies.

What lies ahead is not for Tinubu alone, it is for us all.